Sell Texas, Live In Hell

According to the local ABC station, Houston's heat index high yesterday was 116°F. Today is forecast to be similar.

Here We Go Again... Certain Heavy Rain, Possible Floods, Hail, Tornadoes, ...

Where, exactly? They'll be able to tell us immediately before it happens, not sooner. How bad? Ditto. Houston and surrounding areas, some already saturated, are expected to get 2"-7" rain in some places; needless to say, 2" is a lot less damaging than 7". Oh, and this could happen anytime from tonight to, uh, Monday. We have our cell phones charged up and the ABC13 weather app installed; I already had the NWS site linked... not exceedingly mobile-friendly but I'm accustomed to working it with two fingers. With luck, we will come through this one with as little damage as we had last time (see previous post). When I can post here, I will post here...

Surviving The Weather Event

You may have seen some terrifying photos on the national news of the impact of the storm(s) from the western US as they passed through Houston yesterday. The main difference here is that the same images, along with many more, appeared on the local news, which ran continuously for over 24 hours. The sheer scale of the thing reflected the fact that the storm and its aftermath had no precedent in recorded Houston and Harris County history. Welcome to the new reality, folks.

Stella and I and the kitties are unharmed, and the house we rent was largely undamaged. Apart from a tiny leak under one of the glass doors in the den, we have experienced no flooding to this point. Indeed, the cats found new places to nap through the whole thing. This is in stark contrast to the effects in much of the city:

• At least 13 local bayous topped their banks, or are expected to do so as rain that has already fallen swells the bayous and creeks upstream of us. We may yet see some high water here.
• Many, many Houstonians are now homeless. In many cases, families found themselves trapped in their flooded homes and apartments; locating these people, removing them (often from upper floors) and transporting them through frequently obstructed streets (think: swamp boats and big trucks) to quickly established new shelters is a major and ongoing undertaking.
• Despite best efforts, a few people died: it is hard to imagine, sitting at home, dry and comfortable, why anyone would attempt to drive their small vehicle through a completely flooded underpass (often with flood depth markers, in feet, painted on the columns), but that is one of the most common causes of death in such events here.
• More rain is on the way today and for a few more days. Ground saturation assures that a much smaller quantity of rainwater implies large problems still ahead. One can only hope and pray that a) people show good sense, and b) we don't get additional large quantities of water at Our House.

Thank you for your patience. I'll probably blog a bit more than I have in the past month, but not as much as I might like. Stay dry, folks...

Harris County Residents: Learn To Use One Easy Site That Monitors Bayous Rising

   www.harriscountyfws.org

That's the Harris County Flood Warning System. Please view the page before continuing to read this post. If you enter from the main page, its usage is more or less obvious (except for one quirk), and considering, in every significant rainstorm, how many people here run their cars into deep water, it could be good for drivers (though not so good for car dealers) if everyone visited the site... frequently.

The quirk? The flood gauge boxes are named by nearest major street intersection. Once you've hovered over a flood gauge box to obtain a popup for the particular flood gauge you're interested in, you must mouse to its "more information" link WITHOUT crossing another flood gauge box! You'll doubtless do just that a few times until you learn to watch where you're driving mousing.

Click2Houston similar map

Yes, Click2Houston (broadcast TV Channel 2) has a similar map which provides some people similar info on bayou flooding (see thumbnail at right). It's great, IF you happen to wish to travel near one of its listed flood gauges, carry a 40" flatscreen TV in your car and are able to read very small print on a TV screen in a mere instant... it's not that the Harris County site is better, but that for unassisted home use to obtain info on a specific gauge it's probably more convenient.

NOTE: the web site calls the device a "gage"; please google that spelling ("define:gage") to see why I do not use it. I am confident a reader will correct me if there's an industry-specific reason for using the aberrant spelling. - SB

The Overnight Underwater Report

OK, there's no useful info in this post, but I couldn't resist the subject above. So what happened in Houston?

Flood damage, including even two HPD patrol cars stuck in deep water on Allen Parkway. Wind damage, apparently from tornadoes, which removed roofs in the Friendswood area and trees in, uh, some other places I don't remember. And the reported condition of Hwy. 288 is "Two Gross," a wretched pun attributable to a lot of Rice University students around the year 1970.

And it's still raining this morning, so of course Stella can't resist going out... she doesn't want to miss the second day of her Chinese calligraphy class. I do not consider the class outrageously expensive unless it costs her her car...

Enough. This should all be over by about 6:00 PM, if you believe the TV meteorologists. Until then, please, friends, stay off the roads if you can avoid them, and exercise extreme caution if you can't.

Oh... Our House? It's just fine. I was awakened overnight by the loudest sustained hard rain on the roof I've ever heard here, but it stopped before there was even a threat of flooding. Be careful, good people, and if you can't be careful, be lucky.

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UPDATE about an hour later: water is standing on the lawn at about grass height, lapping over onto the brick patio in some places. In the past, this has not been a sign of impending house flooding; I can only hope this event follows the same pattern.

Central Texas: Flooding, Tornadoes, And Every Other Damned Thing

Because of river conditions left over from the Memorial Day floods, the rain last week and today's heavy rains in central Texas, there were some astonishing flood totals on many rivers in central and south Texas. Click here for a Google result and pick your own bad news.

What about Our House? well, some of the same stuff is coming here tonight. It's not raining now and there has been at least some time and sunshine to drop the level of water here, so supposedly kids here will be able to go out for Halloween tomorrow night. But I admit we're looking over our collective shoulder; no one in Houston takes heavy-rain events or indeed any kind of rise in river levels for granted. (Well, actually, I know one Texan who does, and proudly points to never having lost a car since she moved here 30+ years ago as evidence that she can shrug off such events. No, not Stella. But I think it's just a matter of time. Pride goeth before a waterfall...)

Is The End Of The Rain In Sight? Maybe —

At about 10:30 PM CDT, we just heard an announcement on KHOU-TV that part of the band of heavy rain coming northeast from the coast and passing through Houston (causing some flooding), specifically the trailing edge,  is now visible on radar, possibly 2½‑3‑3½ hours away from Houston. That means there should be an end... sooner than initially expected... to the flooding. So far, the street in front of Our House is not flooded across, and is passable in any but the shallowest vehicle, though I'd prefer not to drive it right now. This may pass us with less damage than we feared. I'll let you know when I know something more myself.

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UPDATE sometime after midnight: even the hours mentioned above may not be soon enough at the rate some areas in the central part of the county are flooding. I'm still hoping for good luck at Our House, and what I see out the window bears out my hope. More as it happens.

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UN-UPDATE: OK. Great. TV stations KHOU and KPRC have recently given quite different versions of what is expected in the next few hours. Maybe this "weather forecasting" thingy is not quite what it's cracked up to be. In any case, I'm going to quit letting their conflicting reports make a fool of me, at least on this one issue... apologies for the confusion, which is obviously not mine alone.

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UPDATE: about 11:15 AM Sunday. The rain has stopped at our location, except for occasional very light, sparse showers. Some other parts of the city got some flooding; I'll leave that to the media to report. Our lawn never got even grass-deep in water, the back patio never had standing water on it, and I don't believe any neighborhood critters (outdoor, whether wild or pet) would have had any trouble surviving. There could always be more weather today, or, Dog forbid, another storm... That's it for me regarding Patricia. What a boring but tense 48 hours!

Hurricane Patricia Most Powerful Ever; Not A Wind Event For Houston But Flooding Dangers Are Real Enough

Hurricane Patricia, approaching the Pacific coast of Mexico with possible catastrophic results there and the possibility of dangerous winds on the Texas coast and rain events tracking northeast across Texas and other states, is the most powerful weather events ever recorded. Right now, Friday at about 5:00PM Central time, it is a category 5 hurricane, the highest possible on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with current winds of... get this... 190 mph with gusts to 240 mph (that's tornado-like, said one meteorologist) and comparably low barometric pressures measured at the center (by dropped barometers, not aircraft, thank goodness). [UPDATE from Weather Underground: "At 2:30 pm Friday afternoon, October 23, 2015, a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft measured a central pressure of 879 mb--the lowest pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Western Hemisphere." Wow.]

That said, I hope you can set your mind at ease about our hazards from this awesome, awful storm: long before it reaches us, for example 1:00AM CT Sunday just prior to its reaching the Mexico-Texas border, winds will probably be 35-40 mph... not even quite tropical storm level. (See map above for forecast extent of tropical storm winds.) That's according to KHOU-TV, which still guests well-known retired meteorologist and acknowledged hurricane expert Dr. Neal Frank and employs several other very respectable younger meteorologists also with tropical expertise and experience.

The rainfall could be a very different matter. Houston's bayous have been successfully engineered over more than 50 years to cope with rains as high as 8" per hour and may... may... be able to withstand as high as 12" per hour in many parts of the city. But the forecast for this event? Between 11" and 15" per hour at its peak. Why such a wide range of possibilities? Well, for one thing, we're talking about tropical rain and South Texas topography here; it's not that easy to forecast in the best of circumstances. For another thing, Houston is a gigantic, spread-out city; people who talk about the "eight-county metropolitan area" are not speaking just metaphorically. Houston is huge. Worse still, its topography is highly diverse... it won't do to forecast one rainfall rate for the whole city because it doesn't work that way.

Of course I'll continue to post as long as we have power, which may be straight through the event... or not. We have food, water, a fairly elevated location within the city, a house that has survived several hurricanes of categories 1 through 3 over the years, a deep and well-engineered bayou near enough to absorb considerable runoff and far enough that we won't flood just by its proximity. As for gasoline, I'm determined neither of us will use any; the city's orders are for citizens NOT to evacuate but to stay home. Those of you who live along coasts know the drill; those of you who live where other kinds of severe storms occur can at least conceive of it.

I'll let you know what we experience. If we lose power and can't use the usual web interface, I can use a cell phone to post a line or two on this blog... ugly but functional. Or maybe Stella will lend me her iPad for a half hour...

Stay safe and dry, my friends. My prayers for the folks in Mexico who are choosing to stay in Patricia's path.

(I have made several post-posting corrections. - SB)

Cool!

... cool enough for Stella, even! This morning, Stella arose, headed (as usual) straight for the thermostat, cranked the temp down to something she considers acceptable (i.e., below 70°F), and... nothing happened. No, the system was not broken; the outside temp was 67°F! After weeks of temperatures of 100+°F, heat indexes a few degrees hotter than the actual temp, we finally got a break.

Not our lawn, but no lovelier...

After doing the absolute minimal wake-up chores ("coffee! coffee!" breathed Stella; "feed me! feed me! feed me! ..." shouted  kitty Esther telepathically), I headed for the one remaining intact patio chair (repeated battering into fences by thunderstorm winds doomed the other, and my bulk finished it off a few days ago) to enjoy a perfect beginning of a Houston Spring day... yes, Spring; that's what it felt like... and to watch as the sun rose, the critters emerged, the oh-so-gentle breeze moved a few leaves, a few inoffensive clouds appeared, the sounds of morning traffic emerged and then subsided, etc. I haven't had a morning like that in a long time!

Of course it won't last. I have (as I used to say in my working days) "lines to code before I sleep, and lines to code before I sleep," and the cool weather will not survive even until noon. But what a treat it was, a respite from the relentless Summer From Hell we've been having. Like a greedy pet cat, I find myself meowing, "More! More! More! ..."

O Danny — Oy!

Is Texas liable to be affected by Hurricane Danny? Well, the short answer is...

... it's too soon to tell. Conditions are currently favorable for development, but it's somewhat fragile; quick, small changes in conditions could easily weaken or redirect it. By midweek or so we should have a better idea.

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UPDATE: the 2:00PM AST update from a hurricane hunter aircraft shows a considerably stronger storm (Category 3), but apparently it is entering unfavorable conditions and is not expected to stay strong. Keep your eyes open if this may affect you. We're already long since stocked for a hurricane, so there's not much more for us to do except watch this truly odd storm as it progresses.

Here is Dr. Jeff Masters with something useful (as usual!):

Track models remain in fairly good agreement on a continued west-northwest track for Danny. The NHC forecast track (see Figure 3) now brings Danny to the vicinity of Puerto Rico by Tuesday and Hispanola by Wednesday. Assuming the west-northwest bearing remains solid, only a slight deviation could play a big role in Danny’s future, as interaction with the mountainous terrain of these islands could quickly disrupt weaken a storm as small as Danny. If the model trend further toward the north continues, Danny has a better chance of escaping landfall on the islands; in this case, its small size could actually result in less disruption from the islands than for a larger hurricane.

See the associated map at the "Dr. Jeff Masters" link above.

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UPDATE Sunday about 8:15AM CDT: call Danny "The Storm that will Not Go Away"; call it that and read Dr. Masters. Danny is weakening as predicted, but is still well-defined and on track.

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UPDATE Monday morning: Danny weakens to a tropical depression. Some rain is expected. Unless Danny cranks up again, this is my last note on it.

Stormy Weather; Stella Under The Weather

Sorry; it's not a good morning for blogging or anything else. Lightning storms are all over the city including here; of the kitties, one hides in a closet and one seeks company. Stella is home from work, having contracted the bug going around her office, a bug which requires proximity to the smallest room. Both storms and sickness are expected to pass by late afternoon or early evening; maybe there will be some blogging at that time, if there are no direct lightning strikes here...

Rain!

Thank goodness we arrived home today at the very moment a downpour started. Carrying in groceries and bottles of my first Two (Three?) Buck Chuck, I was literally soaked to the skin... and delighted to be so! Every day and evening of the coming week is forecast to bring rain. I realize this is not the last manifestation of global climate change, but even to have that initial three-week drought behind us is a great relief.

Miami Houston Heat — Peak Temp And Hot Miscellany

No, as far as I know, Miami's NBA team has not moved here, which is just as well; we already have the Rockets, thankyouverymuch. But the heat... not the Heat... has moved in on us and set up housekeeping. Yesterday's high was (gasps for breath) 106°F. I had stuff to do and I did it, but as I looked at various laborers in the street I was very glad that their jobs were not my job. At least we finally got some rain, for the first time in several weeks. And today is forecast to be a bit cooler. You know all that talk about climate change? I think maybe it has arrived...

Houstonians, here are a few items for you to read while you are stuck indoors, saving yourself from the heat from 1:00pm to 4:00pm, more or less:

• Akil Awan at Informed Comment writes on "Hiroshima and Nagasaki: the single greatest acts of terrorism in human history?"
  

  As I was born three years to the day after the bombing of Hiroshima, I cannot avoid a certain morbid fascination with the event. Terrorism or the saving of our nation? Dad and I used to debate the subject of whether any of our family would be living if the Bomb had not been used; to no one's surprise, I always took the "terrorism" position (without using the word).

• Tan Copsy of Risky Business, writing at Informed Comment offers the irony: "Deep South, biggest Climate Deniers, will be among worst hit by Global Warming"
  

  As the evidence emerges, it becomes clear that it is a good thing so many words have been spoken in vehement denial of climate change: the region is going to need to eat those words, or starve...

• Kevin Gosztola at Shadowproof ("the new FDL") offers us a "Podcast: Bernie Sanders, Black Lives Matter & Problem of Identity Politics"
  

  No one, not even Sen. Sanders, can please all the people all the time. Sensibly enough, his event organizers allowed the Black Lives Matter activists to take the mic for a period of time; after all, theirs is a compelling and legitimate issue, and though I am not Black, I too would be glad to hear Bernie address race issues more firmly... he isn't going to lose any votes already committed to him by doing so, and there's much to be gained if Sanders gains the reputation as "the fair one."

• Motoko Rich at NYT notes with grim smile and shake of the head: "Teacher Shortages Spur a Nationwide Hiring Scramble (Credentials Optional)"
  

  Never forget my two-parent two-schoolteacher household in my youth: that environment formed much of my political outlook, and I admit freely that it gladdens my heart when Republicans (and even some Democrats these days) try to cut corners on education costs and methods, blame teachers for the failure of a system pared to the bone and beyond in an attempt to pocket the tax money for their own purposes, and yet gaze drop‑jawed as teachers, counselors and even administrators flock to other occupations that pay better salaries for work involving a great deal less outright aggravation than schoolteaching. The ghosts of Bill and Irma are grinning at the sight!

In The Heat Of The Night Day

... and this episode doesn't feature a small Mississippi town in the mid-1980s but rather the largest city in Texas in the all-too-present day. Neither does it star the late lamented Carroll O'Connor but instead every suffering Houstonian who has to leave her or his air-conditioned home for more than 10 minutes during the afternoon.

But the good Dog knows the heat part is certainly here. One of Houston's broadcast TV meteorologists has forecast, starting today, not less than a solid week of temperatures 100°F or greater. That's actual temp, not heat index. And we're not talking about a Dallas 100°F, but the typical humidity-laden Houston 100°F. The kind of heat that regularly kills people: old people who exhibit poor judgment in leaving home without their hats, sunscreen, heavy-duty sunglasses, etc., or children whose parents show even worse judgment by leaving them in the unairconditioned car "for only 10 minutes" while they run into a convenience store for a carton of something more carcinogenic, but no more deadly, than the excessive heat buildup inside that car.

Speaking of people sensible enough NOT to live in hot climates, Happy Birthday to NTodd; may this bright and still quite young man live to see many more!

The ‘Bill’ That Still Isn't Paid

Tropical Depression Bill has mostly cleared the Houston area (mostly but not completely, if you care about the flooding!), but is still making trouble with flash floods and local river rises "from Oklahoma to Illinois through Friday[.]" Some weather just won't quit; click for map from about 4:58AM CT today.

This is liable to be a very expensive storm, in damage done, misery of displaced families who lost their homes, and (fortunately few) deaths. And I can't help noticing what a great portion of the US has been affected. I hope this is not the new normal, but I'm afraid it may be.

Flood Gauges In Houston-Harris County Look Good; Surrounding Areas Not So Much

Take a look for yourself. Of course, what looks good and what doesn't may have changed by the time you view the page.

The "hgx" param in the URL names the initial central radar area, in this case, Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX). Once the map opens (which takes a while), you can manually choose an adjacent radar area.

I never knew this resource was available, but since I live in Flood City USA, I suspect I'll be using it again. (Actually I suppose NOLA is Flood City USA. [/sigh].)

More Rain

No, not the stuff at the foot of a glacier, just drear, dark drizzle, so far this morning less than 5 minutes of downpour. NWS promises us 100% chance of (heavy) rain, and we've had small amounts, but nothing to strain the street-and-bayou drainage system. If this keeps up, I may get bored enough to resume writing about (gasp) politics before the day is over! But in matters of tropical weather, boring is good...

Here We Go... UPDATED

BOHICA! Yes, "again," a mere three weeks since the last flood-inducing storm... the serious rain is forecast to begin at 4:00 A.M. Wish us luck...

UPDATE Tues. about 8:00 AM CT: finally the rain arrived, just a few minutes ago. T.S. Bill is wide, extending about 150 miles west and 150 miles east along the coast from the center landfall (approximately now) at Matagorda. In that respect only, Bill reminds me of Hurricane Ike. Stella is toying with the idea of going to work (the roads are clear at the moment but who knows about this evening) and I am toying with the idea of finding a rope and tying her down (no, we're not into that sort of thing; I just don't want to see her stranded at her place of employment [which, damn it, has announced it will be open for business]) for TWO DAYS, which is the forecast duration of the potentially flooding rain.

UPDATE Tues. about 3:30 PM CT: at Our House in Houston, there's still no severe weather, very little rain and no flooding at all. Those who live in other parts of the city may have other experiences, perhaps even including tornadoes. This doesn't mean Bill has given us a miss: once the storm center is well onshore beyond Matagorda, we expect bands of rain, possibly training one after another, each brief and intense with short breaks in between, for more than 24 hours. Will we flood? Don't know; stay tuned.

The kitties are rather nervous, and Stella is even more so... she became so annoyed watching the continuous storm coverage on local broadcast TV (overall excellent IMHO) that she took to watching classic TV. I really need to see the end of this storm!

‘A Little Ray Of Sunshine’

That describes neither of us humans in this house, and neither of the cats. But we did see that little ray this morning, for a few minutes just before it up-and-poured rain at a rate that looked liable to flood the patio within minutes. That wasn't supposed to happen until late this afternoon; I was worried. But the intense rain stopped in about a half hour, and the ground here at Our House is not really saturated yet... it has been drying out since Memorial Day. So we're not flooded yet, and moments ago we had Another Little Ray of Sunshine. The TV meteorologists have succeeded in scaring the crap out of me about the approaching weather, but my reaction at the moment is that no one told me that a major symptom of global climate change would be truly weird, erratic weather.

Something's fishy in chair and weather
(too bad our chairs are not this whimsical)

Welcome to our age; please take a chair, a patio or lawn chair. Take it into the garage, so it won't blow away or float away...

Soon We May Be Having Weather

It's pleasant and sunny in Houston at the moment, but if I disappear for a few days, you may want to look at more recent stories about what is now Invest 91‑L. Our main worry if we do get a hurricane is not the wind... this house has withstood everything Mother Nature has blown at it over the past couple of decades... but the water. The ground has not exactly dried out from those floods we had a week or two ago.

I'll try to post for as long as we have power and a 'net connection, and may put up one of those text-only email posts from my cell phone even if we don't.