Friday, August 21, 2015

O Danny — Oy!

Is Texas liable to be affected by Hurricane Danny? Well, the short answer is...

... it's too soon to tell. Conditions are currently favorable for development, but it's somewhat fragile; quick, small changes in conditions could easily weaken or redirect it. By midweek or so we should have a better idea.

UPDATE: the 2:00PM AST update from a hurricane hunter aircraft shows a considerably stronger storm (Category 3), but apparently it is entering unfavorable conditions and is not expected to stay strong. Keep your eyes open if this may affect you. We're already long since stocked for a hurricane, so there's not much more for us to do except watch this truly odd storm as it progresses.

Here is Dr. Jeff Masters with something useful (as usual!):
Track models remain in fairly good agreement on a continued west-northwest track for Danny. The NHC forecast track (see Figure 3) now brings Danny to the vicinity of Puerto Rico by Tuesday and Hispanola by Wednesday. Assuming the west-northwest bearing remains solid, only a slight deviation could play a big role in Danny’s future, as interaction with the mountainous terrain of these islands could quickly disrupt weaken a storm as small as Danny. If the model trend further toward the north continues, Danny has a better chance of escaping landfall on the islands; in this case, its small size could actually result in less disruption from the islands than for a larger hurricane.
See the associated map at the "Dr. Jeff Masters" link above.

UPDATE Sunday about 8:15AM CDT: call Danny "The Storm that will Not Go Away"; call it that and read Dr. Masters. Danny is weakening as predicted, but is still well-defined and on track.

UPDATE Monday morning: Danny weakens to a tropical depression. Some rain is expected. Unless Danny cranks up again, this is my last note on it.

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